US Coal Exports
Exports Economic Contributions Report
Jul 09 2013

U.S. Government Predicts Coal Exports Increases (Platts)

EIA estimates annual US coal burn, supply to drop; exports to increase

 The US Energy Information Administration revised slightly downward its annual estimate of US coal burn and production, but increased its estimate of US exports for the year, according to the monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday.

The agency estimates US coal consumption will total 950 million short tons in 2013, down 0.4% compared with its June estimate. The new July estimate marks a 6.7% increase from 2012 consumption of 890 million st, which the agency attributed to higher electricity demand and higher natural gas prices.

In addition, the agency estimates US coal consumption in 2014 will total 966 million st, a 0.4% drop from its previous June estimate of 970 million st.

The EIA estimates US coal production will total 1,017 million st in 2013, a 0.4% drop from its June estimate of 1,021 million st, but a 0.1% increase from 2012 production of 1,016 million st.

The agency said inventory draws and a small increase in coal imports met most of the growth in consumption in 2013.

For 2014, the agency estimates US coal production will total 1,050 million st, a 0.4% drop from its June estimate of 1,054 million st, but higher than years past as inventories stabilize in the face of increased consumption.

According to the agency, US coal exports are likely to increase in 2013 to 112 million st, a 1.8% increase from its June estimate of 110 million st. The July estimate is a 11.1% drop compared with the record US exports of 126 million st in 2012.

In 2014, the EIA estimates US coal exports will total 108 million st, a 0.9% increase from its June estimate of 107 million st.

The agency did not cite a reason for its increased export estimates.

The agency also revised downward its estimates of US power generation from coal in 2013, to 40.1% from its previous June estimate of 40.2%. The agency also revised its 2014 estimate to 40.1% from 40.2% as reported in June.

The US generated 37.4% of its power from coal in 2012.

The agency said the increased coal burn is due to generators running their existing coal plants at higher capacity in response to the increased cost of natural gas relative to coal.

The EIA’s estimates of US coal prices per MMBtu remained unchanged from June, at $2.36/MMBtu in 2013 and $2.40/MMBtu in 2014. The 2013 price of $2.36/MMBtu is the lowest average annual coal price since 2000, according to the agency.

In 2012, US coal prices were $2.40/MMBtu, said the agency.

See article here.

  • “The fact that we’re no longer in the age of energy scarcity – that we’re in the age of energy abundance – positions the United States in a totally different place. This gives access to affordable, reliable energy in the United States, and gives the U.S. a major competitive advantage.”
    – Dave Banks, Special Assistant to President Donald Trump for International Energy, June 2017
  • “It is in the national interest to promote clean and safe development of our Nation's vast energy resources, while at the same time avoiding regulatory burdens that unnecessarily encumber energy production, constrain economic growth, and prevent job creation. Moreover, the prudent development of these natural resources is essential to ensuring the Nation's geopolitical security.”
    – Executive Order on Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth, March 28, 2017
  • “Historically, U.S. companies seeking to expand their revenues focused first on increasing their number and share of U.S customers. For years, this focus served as a winning strategy for many of the most successful U.S. companies. Today, global economic trends make clear that successful companies are those that reach and sell to consumers outside U.S. borders and around the globe.”
    — 2011 National Export Strategy, U.S. Trade Promotion Coordinating Committee
  • “Federal regulatory agencies should not require climate change studies in the course of their permitting processes for proposed facilities. Coal will be consumed around the world regardless of U.S. trade policy. The only question is whether the coal is produced here in North America, where environmental standards are high, or elsewhere.”
    — U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, January 7, 2014
  • “At present 19% of the world’s population, 1.3 billion people, lack access to electricity and on New Policy Scenario projections there will still be 1 billion people without such access in 2030. To meet the UN Millennium Development Goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2015, 395 million more people need access to electricity. There is a strong correlation between electrification and improvement in the United Nations’ Human Development Index.”
    — International Energy Agency, Coal Industry Advisory Board
  • “Access to electricity is strongly correlated with every measurable indicator of human development”
    — Berkeley Science Review, 2008

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