US Coal Exports
Exports Economic Contributions Report
Dec 12 2017

US Coal Exports Estimated to Total 89 million st in 2017: EIA (Platts)

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US Coal Exports Estimated to Total 89 million st in 2017: EIA

Coal exports are estimated to total 89 million st in 2017, a 48% jump from last year, according to the US Energy Information Administration’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, released Tuesday.

For the current year, metallurgical coal exports are expected to total 53.7 million st, compared with 40.9 million mt last year, while thermal coal exports are expected to total 35.3 million st, compared with 19.3 million st last year.

The price for premium low vol met coal FOB Australia averaged $143.24 mt in 2016, compared with $184.82/mt through Tuesday of this year. For thermal coal, the average price of delivered coal into Northern Europe (CIF ARA) last year was $59.95/mt compared with $84.23/mt through Tuesday of this year.

The 2017 figure would be the highest since 2014, when 97.3 million st were shipped.

In 2018, the agency estimates coal exports to dip to 73.5 million st.

For production, the EIA estimates the US will mine 791 million st in 2017, up 8.6% from last year, but only 771 million st in 2018.

Power sector coal consumption is estimated total 672 million st this year, down 0.8% from last year, while consumption is projected to total 677 million st in 2018.

The agency estimates coal will generate 30.5% of US power in 2017, up from 30.4% last year, and will generate 30.7% in 2018. Gas generation is expected to total 31.6% in 2017, down from 33.8% last year, and 32.3% in 2018.

Coal is slated to benefit from higher gas prices in 2018. The agency estimates the spot physical price for gas at Henry Hub will average $3.24/MMBtu in 2018, up from $3.12/MMBtu this year. The price averaged $2.61/MMBtu in 2016.

Lower gas prices are driving the changes in the forecast, as the agency projects the average delivered price for power sector gas to be $3.50/MMBtu in 2017 and $3.76/MMBtu in 2018.

The agency expects total US dry gas production to average 73.5 Bcf/d in 2017, up from 72.3 Bcf/d last year, and 79.7 Bcf/d in 2018.

LNG exports from the US are expected to average 1.94 Bcf/d in 2017 and 3.03 Bcf/d in 2018, while gas exports through pipeline are expected to average 6.75 Bcf/d in 2017 and 7.32 Bcf/d in 2018.

See article here.

  • “The fact that we’re no longer in the age of energy scarcity – that we’re in the age of energy abundance – positions the United States in a totally different place. This gives access to affordable, reliable energy in the United States, and gives the U.S. a major competitive advantage.”
    – Dave Banks, Special Assistant to President Donald Trump for International Energy, June 2017
  • “It is in the national interest to promote clean and safe development of our Nation's vast energy resources, while at the same time avoiding regulatory burdens that unnecessarily encumber energy production, constrain economic growth, and prevent job creation. Moreover, the prudent development of these natural resources is essential to ensuring the Nation's geopolitical security.”
    – Executive Order on Promoting Energy Independence and Economic Growth, March 28, 2017
  • “Historically, U.S. companies seeking to expand their revenues focused first on increasing their number and share of U.S customers. For years, this focus served as a winning strategy for many of the most successful U.S. companies. Today, global economic trends make clear that successful companies are those that reach and sell to consumers outside U.S. borders and around the globe.”
    — 2011 National Export Strategy, U.S. Trade Promotion Coordinating Committee
  • “Federal regulatory agencies should not require climate change studies in the course of their permitting processes for proposed facilities. Coal will be consumed around the world regardless of U.S. trade policy. The only question is whether the coal is produced here in North America, where environmental standards are high, or elsewhere.”
    — U.S. Senator Lisa Murkowski, January 7, 2014
  • “At present 19% of the world’s population, 1.3 billion people, lack access to electricity and on New Policy Scenario projections there will still be 1 billion people without such access in 2030. To meet the UN Millennium Development Goal of eradicating extreme poverty by 2015, 395 million more people need access to electricity. There is a strong correlation between electrification and improvement in the United Nations’ Human Development Index.”
    — International Energy Agency, Coal Industry Advisory Board
  • “Access to electricity is strongly correlated with every measurable indicator of human development”
    — Berkeley Science Review, 2008

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